Principles of Public Finance by Toshihiro Ihori

Author:Toshihiro Ihori
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Springer Singapore, Singapore

B3 Simulation Analysis in Ihori et al. (2005)

First, we explain the simulation results in Ihori et al. (2005). In order to make our simulation analysis as close to real circumstances as possible, obtainable and forecasted data have been used with estimated values of relevant parameters from empirical research. There are five key elements relevant to this simulation: demography , a government deficits policy, a public pension scheme, a medical health insurance scheme, and taxes.

B3.1 Demography

Actual data have been used from 1965 to 2000 . Before 1965, population data was calculated backward from the 1965 population data under the assumption that the fertility rate and the mortality rate were the same as those of 1965. For the future population, the official estimation by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (NIPSSR) (2002) is used, and survival rates are taken from the NIPSSR life tables (kanzen seimeihyo). NIPSSR projects population only to 2100. For subsequent years, the number of births and deaths, and the survival rates, are fixed at the same levels as those in 2100. Figure 7.B1 shows aging rates based on three different scenarios in NIPSSR (2002). In our benchmark simulation, NIPSSR’s medium variant estimation has been used.

Fig. 7.B1Aging rates (Source: NIPSSR 2002)

Download

Copyright Disclaimer:
This site does not store any files on its server. We only index and link to content provided by other sites. Please contact the content providers to delete copyright contents if any and email us, we'll remove relevant links or contents immediately.